Oil Prices Poised for Further Increase Amid Ongoing Supply Disruptions

MANILA – Oil prices are set to experience another upward adjustment next week, as persistent supply disruptions continue to exert upward pressure on the market. Industry expert Leo Bellas, president of Jetti Petroleum, projects a diesel price increase ranging from PHP0.80 to PHP1 per liter, alongside a potential PHP0.10 rise in gasoline prices.

Bellas highlighted that prices for middle distillates, including diesel, jet fuel, and kerosene, remain elevated due to constrained supply caused by reduced outputs from Northeast Asia. This reduction stems from ongoing refinery maintenance and unexpected outages, compounded by consistent export limitations from China.

"Russian supply interruptions continue to play a significant role in tightening the distillate markets," Bellas explained.

Conversely, Asian gasoline prices have slightly declined this week amid indications of waning regional demand. The trend is further supported by a notable build-up in US gasoline inventories—the first increase recorded in over a month—which signals softened consumption in the world’s largest economy.

Bellas also pointed to geopolitical developments as pivotal factors affecting price trends. The implementation of US sanctions on Russian oil companies Lukoil and Rosneft starting November 21, along with the US’s intensified efforts to diplomatically end Russia’s conflict in Ukraine, are expected to influence market dynamics moving forward.

Should the forecasted diesel price increase materialize, it would mark the fifth consecutive week of rises for the fuel, while gasoline prices would see their eighth straight week of gains. This week alone, prices of both diesel and gasoline surged by PHP1.20 per liter.

The ongoing supply constraints combined with geopolitical tensions suggest that consumers can anticipate continued volatility in fuel prices in the near term.